Could the Islamic Republic’s promotion of atomic weapon production discourse prevent the attack on Israel and its allies?

Islamism, led by the religious regime in Iran, has used all its power to recreate a frightening image of a powerful force. Although the missile power of the religious government has long been considered a deterrent to Islamism, after the recent events, it is no longer considered a deterrent with high destruction. Islamists have realized that they have to compensate for this defect as soon as possible. Maybe if Hezbollah and Hamas had their past power, they could fill this void to some extent, but today the situation of these forces is no better than the image of Iran’s missile power. Therefore, the promotion of the atomic weapon production discourse can be observed

• Al-Jazeera TV host ( @jamalrayyan )considers the mild earthquake in the center of Iran a few days ago to be affected by Iran’s nuclear test.
• The daily publication of the IRCG wrote that it is not permissible to build and use nuclear weapons based on Islamic principles. Still, if it is necessary to protect the lives, property, and honor of Muslims, this weapon must be built.
• Javan newspaper (affiliated with the IRGC) said the production of nuclear weapons to be scientifically inevitable despite the will of the rulers.
• Every day, several officials and representatives of the Parliament of the Islamic Republic repeat the threat of nuclear weapons.

What is clear is that the coordinated media and propaganda actions to rebuild the Islamic Republic’s dangerous and destructive missile forces with the addition of a nuclear warhead are underway. The question is, can this discourse space restore the Islamic regime’s deterrent powers?

In this note, only a few points are mentioned that are directly related to nuclear weapons production in the current situation. These points show that the Islamists’ idea of ​​creating the atomic weapon production discourse is very crude and primitive.

1- Iran’s nuclear industry with glass walls:

In these few years, the activities of Israel’s secret service have shown that there are no hidden issues for Israel and its friends. Sometimes it is heard that Western officials can even guess the time of obtaining nuclear weapons of the Islamic Republic with daily estimates.

Therefore, the discourse environment created by Islamists may affect ordinary people, but the governments and decision-makers of Israel and its allies, having detailed information, will not pay much attention to this environment. Whenever their information indicates the imminent acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Islamic Republic, it will be accompanied by the strongest reaction.

2-  Alliance with Russia and atomic weapon production discourse

 Common enmity has led to the idea of ​​forming a kind of alliance between the Islamic Republic and Russia. the Islamic Republic hopes that due to the war in Ukraine and the hostility that has arisen between the West and Russia, Russia will show more sympathy with Iran and send the necessary defense systems to Iran to face the possible attacks of Israel and the West.

This is while Russia has always been seriously opposed to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. This opposition is understandable. No country wants to witness the emergence of unstoppable nuclear powers in its region. The question is, won’t repeating these words and articulating discourse affect the agreement and the possible sending of Russian defense systems to Iran? Russia is an experienced actor in international diplomacy.

Russia knows how to use the play card of closeness with Iran to secure its interests, but he certainly does not want this play card to cause him trouble.

3- the experience of missile attacks

 The two missile attacks of the Islamic Republic on Israel showed that most of the missiles were shot down by the Israeli defense system and the cooperation of the Western forces present in the region. According to reports, about 90% of missiles are destroyed before reaching their destination.

Now we have to ask, could the Islamic Republic launch several missiles equipped with a nuclear warhead that delivers at least one missile to its destination? In most of the reports of Western authorities, it is estimated that the amount of uranium enriched by the Islamic Republic is enough to make a limited number of atomic bombs (2 to 3 nuclear warheads). Apart from that, as we have seen, the destruction of missiles in the sky leads to the fall of their remains in other countries.

Are the remnants of missiles equipped with nuclear warheads harmless to other countries? Imagining the consequences of such a situation for the religious government is more frightening than anyone wanting to do such an act.

Mentioning these points shows that the mere discursive articulation of producing nuclear weapons is not a sufficient reason for rebuilding the deterrence power of the Islamic Republic. The issue is more complicated than the Islamist media say.