Is the nuclear program of Iran going to produce an atomic bomb?

The reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency show that in the nuclear program of Iran, the uranium enrichment process continues.

The Reuters news agency said on Thursday, August 29 that the reports of the IAEA, seen by Reuters on the same day, show that in the nuclear program of Iran, production of high-purity enriched uranium continues. Reuters also reported that Iran has not improved its cooperation with the IAEA despite the resolution passed at the last meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors.

Without going into the time-consuming and useless details of the IAEA reports, I know one thing for sure. If uranium enrichment was just considered an option for the Islamic government until a few months ago, today it is the most important option and perhaps the only option that it cannot ignore.

The specific Cycle of the nuclear program of Iran

The nuclear program of Iran has been repeated for more than 20 years in a specific cycle. During this period, the Islamic regime always took a step in the direction of uranium enrichment, it faced negative feedback from the agency, the two sides entered into negotiations and reached agreements, but after a while, due to various reasons, the Islamic regime again took another step to achieve Uranium with higher purity and the same cycle repeats.

Let’s not forget that at the beginning of this process, the negotiations were about enrichment with a purity of 3 to 4 percent. Today, the accumulation of uranium with a concentration of 60% has become a normal thing. It has been proven to almost everyone that the mechanism governing the regulations of the IAEA is not able to stop the nuclear activities of a government like the Islamic Republic. It seems that the continuation of this process cannot change the path of the religious regime to obtain uranium with a high concentration.

launching hundreds of missiles and drones

On April 13, 2024, hundreds of missiles and drones were fired at Israel after Iran decided to avenge the death of several IRGC commanders. The result was incredible. Almost all of them were destroyed before reaching their destination. The Islamic regime suddenly realizes that all its investments in these few years have been made on a project that is based on knowledge and technology that has expired.

This event meant the loss of deterrence the Islamic Republic had defined for itself during the last two decades. With such an incident, the Islamic regime has realized that it must take action to compensate for this damage as soon as possible.

Russia has never been a reliable partner

The Islamic Republic is the government of Islamists. Islamism was a reaction to modernization and its political rationality, i.e. liberal democracy. Therefore, this group seeks its identity in the struggle against Western values, especially liberal democracy.

The sharing of the Islamic government with Putin’s government in Russia over the enmity with Western liberal democracy has brought these two governments closer to each other. Although this rapprochement can lead to military and security agreements and, to some extent compensate for the lack of a deterrent force with the Islamic State, Russia has never been a reliable partner.

The recent action of Russia to emphasize the construction of the Zangezur Corridor shows this claim. The Zangezur Corridor, which connects the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, will cut off Iran’s land connection with Armenia.

From all the above, it can be said that the Islamic government is the sworn enemy of liberal democracy. It also looks at Israel as a creature that has caused trouble in Islamic lands. With this description, there is a deep gap between this government and the West and Israel, which cannot be repaired in any way.

In other words, the Islamic government, which sees its identity as an enemy to the West and fighting until the destruction of Israel, will always seek military power to help it achieve its goals. Considering the lack of reliable military and security agreements between the Islamic government and Russia, it should be sure that the development of military weapons with offensive and deterrent capabilities is always a priority for the Islamic government.

Considering that the missile and drone power of the Islamic regime has been destroyed and is no longer considered a deterrent force, it seems that acquiring nuclear military forces can be a desirable option. The history of nuclear negotiations between the Agency and the Islamic Government has shown that these negotiations are merely a repeating cycle that begins with each step of the Islamic Republic towards higher enrichment and temporarily causes a pause in the enrichment, but after a while, it became ineffective again and The next step is taken to achieve a higher concentration of uranium.

In the current situation, the Islamic government is in dire need of a deterrent. He knows that without such forces, he must expect a blow from Israel at any moment. It seems that any other government in the Islamic Republic’s situation will do it. The question is what the agency along with European and American countries will finally decide? Is the intention to repeat the same cycle?

In a situation where, on the one hand, the Islamic Republic has a strong desire to obtain uranium with maximum concentration, and on the other hand, the cycle of nuclear negotiations between the Agency and the Islamic Government has been fruitless, it seems that The time has come to fundamentally revise the strategies of the International institutions.

The question is, isn’t it time for the United Nations to address the battle between Islamism and liberal democracy directly and as seriously as possible? Is it still enough to be satisfied with the technical negotiations between the IAEA and the Islamic government? Isn’t it time to start a fundamental criticism of Islamism in the United Nations and other international institutions?