Iran Missile Attack on Israel: Regional Implications and Dimensions
In an attempt to compensate for its human and reputational losses in the regional developments of the Middle East in 2024, Iran conducted two missile attacks on targets in Israel. These two attacks, referred to by the Islamic Republic as Promise 1 and Promise 2, have led to outcomes that, rather than restoring the religious regime’s lost credibility, have brought about changes that are not favorable to the regime.
Details of the First Attack
The first Iran missile attack occurred on April 25, 2024, involving the launch of hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles accompanied by suicide drones. These missiles targeted sites such as military bases and strategic infrastructure in Israel. Israeli officials reported that the Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted 99% of the missiles. However, it was later revealed that nine missiles bypassed the defenses and struck targets in two military air bases.
Defensive Reactions
Israel utilized the Arrow 3 and David’s Sling systems to intercept the projectiles. The air and naval forces of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan also assisted in intercepting Iranian drones. France, intervening at Jordan’s request, deployed its naval forces to provide radar coverage. Jordan announced that it had intercepted objects entering its airspace to ensure the safety of its citizens.
Details of the Second Attack
The second Iran missile attack occurred on October 1, 2024, involving the launch of 200 ballistic missiles, some reportedly equipped with hypersonic technology. This attack was also intercepted by Israeli defenses and coalition forces, with most missiles being destroyed before reaching their targets.
Defensive Reaction to the Second Attack
The Israel Defense Forces reported intercepting “a large number of” missiles. Pentagon spokesperson Patrick S. Ryder confirmed that U.S. Navy destroyers launched approximately a dozen interceptor missiles against Iranian missiles. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that other U.S. “partners” also contributed to thwarting the attack, though he did not specify who they were. Jordan announced that its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones over its airspace during the incident. According to the BBC, the U.S. confirmed that its two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean fired 12 interceptor missiles at incoming Iranian missiles. The UK Ministry of Defense stated that it “played its role” in defending Israel, with British forces also assisting Israel. The Arrow and David’s Sling missile defense systems were activated during these attacks.
International Reactions
These attacks triggered widespread reactions from the international community. The United States, as one of Israel’s key allies, condemned the actions and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. The European Union also expressed concern over escalating tensions and urged both sides to adopt diplomatic solutions.
Analysis of Iran’s Motivations
Analysts believe that Iran aimed to convey several significant messages to domestic and international audiences through these attacks:
- Demonstration of Military Strength: Iran sought to showcase its advanced capabilities in weaponry by launching high-precision ballistic missiles. However, the interception of over 90% of these missiles before reaching their targets undermined this claim.
- Retaliation Against Israeli Strikes: Iran viewed these attacks as a response to Israeli operations targeting key figures and commanders in the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
- Deterrence: While Iran’s missile capabilities were once perceived as a regional deterrent, the destruction of most of the launched missiles and drones before reaching their targets demonstrated the inaccuracy of this perception. The religious regime’s miscalculations have undermined a significant element of its strategic influence.
Potential Consequences
These attacks could have far-reaching implications for regional security:
- Increased Tensions in the Middle East: There is a heightened risk of broader conflicts between Iran and Israel.
- Impact on Nuclear Negotiations: Following the first attack and observing its consequences, the regime swiftly held a sham election, installing a figure with a reformist facade as president to use negotiations as a tool to prevent further potential attacks against itself.
- Reactions from Regional States: Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may view these developments with concern and increase their support for Israel.
Conclusion
Iran’s missile attacks on Israel signify escalating hostilities in the Middle East, with consequences that extend beyond the borders of the two nations. While international actors strive to manage this crisis, the risk of regional warfare remains significant.
This event underscores the enduring tensions in the Middle East and highlights the necessity of returning to the negotiating table to find comprehensive and lasting solutions to these conflicts.
